Rolex · WatchesPacks checked 10 Nov 2026
Rolex Submariner
The packs that hold it, cheapest first, with the chance each site shows. We found it in at least 30 packs on 4 sites.
- 4 sites we review
- 30 packs found
- best chance 1 in 500
- odds as each site shows them
New to packs? How they work in three steps
How packs work, with this item's numbers
- A pack is a mystery boxEach pack on a site lists its items and the chance of each one.
- The price buys one openingOne opening costs $3.02 for a 1 in 500,000 chance at this one (1% Watch on LuxDrop). The site draws one item at random.
- 1 in 500,000 is your chanceOn average, one opening in 500,000 gives the Rolex Submariner. The others give something else from the pack.
On average a pack pays back less than it costs. The house always wins.
Cheapest way in
One opening$3.02
Chance at the item1 in 500,000
Review Promo codes Affiliate link: search for "1% Watch" on LuxDrop.
What does this price buy?
$3.02 buys one opening of 1% Watch with a 1 in 500,000 chance at the Rolex Submariner, not the item itself.
On average, one opening in 500,000 gives it. The others give something else from the pack.
The button is our affiliate link: it opens LuxDrop with our code, not the pack, so search for "1% Watch" there.
How likely am I to get it?
Each site's best chance for this item, on one scale. The longer the bar, the likelier.
- LuxDrop 1 in 500Sweetflips, $245.88 pack
- PackDraw 1 in 667Benny, $195.25 pack
- RillaBox 1 in 1,473Dubai Bling, $609.99 pack
- Cases.gg 1 in 1,000Borrowed Time, $200.74 pack
The best chance is 1 in 500 for $245.88 a pack, in Sweetflips on LuxDrop.
What the sites value it at
$13,000 to $160,000
Why do the values differ?
Each site puts its own value on the item, and one name can cover several models or editions. It is what the site says the item is worth, not what you pay: you pay the pack's price.
Every pack we found it in
Cheapest first · 30 of 30 shown
How do I read this list?
- One opening
- The pack's price on the site. It buys one opening, and one item comes out.
- Chance
- How often this item comes out of that pack, as the site shows it. "1 in 20,000" means one opening in 20,000, on average. The bar runs from 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10.
- Site's value
- What the site says the item is worth, next to the item's name on the site.
- Find
- Our affiliate link. It opens the site with our code, not the pack, so search for the pack by its name.
We list up to the eight cheapest packs per site and the one with the best chance for its price.
| Pack | One opening | Chance | Find it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% WatchCheapest LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm Steel Black Dial · site's value $17,800 | $3.02 a pack | 1 in 500,0000.0002% | Find |
| The Ride PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Steel Black Dial 41mm · site's value $18,928 | $30.53 a pack | 1 in 40,0000.0025% | Find |
| THATS GONNA PAY PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Two Tone Blue Dial 41mm · site's value $24,640 | $31.33 a pack | 1 in 28,5710.0035% | Find |
| Time Flex RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Black Dial - 40mm, Steel (2017) · site's value $13,000 | $39.99 a pack | 1 in 10,5260.0095% | Find |
| Blitz PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Yellow Gold Blue Dial 41mm · site's value $58,000 | $46.23 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| Aircool PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Yellow Gold Blue Dial 41mm · site's value $58,000 | $56.08 a pack | 1 in 200,0000.0005% | Find |
| Time Is King LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm Yellow Rolesor Blue Dial · site's value $23,700 | $61.49 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| 1% Rollie LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 40mm Steel "Kermit" · site's value $18,123 | $65.68 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| 1% Rollie LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm Steel Black Dial · site's value $17,800 | $65.68 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| 1% Rollie LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm Yellow Rolesor Blue Dial · site's value $23,700 | $65.68 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| The W PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Steel Black Dial 41mm · site's value $18,928 | $70.75 a pack | 1 in 4,0000.025% | Find |
| Best of 2024 PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Steel Black Dial 41mm · site's value $18,928 | $74.32 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| SteveWillDoIt Junior PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Date "Starbucks" 41mm · site's value $19,000 | $79.06 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| Rolexus LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm Yellow Rolesor Blue Dial · site's value $23,700 | $88.37 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Rolexus LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 41mm 18kt Yellow Gold Blue Dial · site's value $46,250 | $88.37 a pack | 1 in 25,0000.004% | Find |
| Glory PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Two Tone Black Dial 41mm · site's value $24,080 | $108.70 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Mafia RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Black Dial - 40mm, Steel (2017) · site's value $13,000 | $139.99 a pack | 1 in 11,2360.0089% | Find |
| Ibiza Final Boss LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 40mm Steel "Kermit" · site's value $18,123 | $145.26 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Horologist Cases.gg · Rolex Submariner Date · site's value $32,000 | $193.58 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Benny PackDraw · Rolex Submariner Steel Black Dial 41mm · site's value $18,928 | $195.25 a pack | 1 in 6670.15% | Find |
| Borrowed Time Cases.gg · Rolex Submariner Date · site's value $40,000 | $200.74 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| 1% Rollie Cases.gg · Rolex Submariner Date · site's value $40,000 | $211.38 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| SweetflipsBest chance LuxDrop · Rolex Submariner 40mm Steel "Kermit" · site's value $18,123 | $245.88 a pack | 1 in 5000.2% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Rolex Submariner Date · site's value $17,000 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Jaguar RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Green Dial (Hulk) - 40mm, Steel (2019) · site's value $20,200 | $559.99 a pack | 1 in 5,0510.02% | Find |
| Volvo RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Blue Dial (Bluesy) - 41mm, Steel and Yellow Gold (2024) · site's value $20,690 | $579.99 a pack | 1 in 3,1150.032% | Find |
| Dubai Bling RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Black Dial - 41mm, Steel (2023) · site's value $13,900 | $609.99 a pack | 1 in 1,4730.068% | Find |
| Land Rover RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Green Dial (Hulk) - 40mm, Steel (2019) · site's value $20,200 | $649.99 a pack | 1 in 2,1600.046% | Find |
| Rolex Submariner RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Black Diamond Dial - 40mm, Yellow Gold (2016) · site's value $61,499 | $849.99 a pack | 1 in 22,2220.0045% | Find |
| Rolex Submariner RillaBox · Rolex Submariner Diamond and Sapphire Dial - 40mm, White Gold (2019) · site's value $160,000 | $849.99 a pack | 1 in 166,6670.0006% | Find |
What we think
The Submariner is the dive watch most people picture when they hear the word Rolex. In the cheapest pack the chance is 1 in 500,000, so expect the small items, not the watch.
Want the sites rather than one item? Our Rolex Mystery Boxes list ranks them. Before you open a pack, read our LuxDrop review, PackDraw review, RillaBox review and Cases.gg review.
Other watches we track
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore
From a $110.62 pack · 1 in 10,000
Best chance 1 in 33
At least 25 packs on 4 sites: PackDraw, Cases.gg, RillaBox, LuxDrop
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
From a $5.92 pack · 1 in 1,000,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 33 packs on 4 sites: LuxDrop, RillaBox, PackDraw, Cases.gg
Cartier
Cartier Santos
From a $2.58 pack · 1 in 500,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 32 packs on 5 sites: GOATbox.gg, LuxDrop, PackDraw, RillaBox, Cases.gg
Swatch
Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch
From a $0.82 pack · 1 in 100,000
Best chance 1 in 8
At least 29 packs on 5 sites: PackDraw, LuxDrop, Cases.gg, GOATbox.gg, RillaBox
Packs checked 10 Nov 2026. The chance, the pack price and the value are each site's own, read from its pack pages. "1 in N" is 100 divided by the chance. The buttons are our affiliate links: they open the site with our code, not the pack itself. We may earn a commission; it never changes the odds or the order here, which is always cheapest first. Opening packs is entertainment, not a cheap way to get this item: the house always wins. If it stops being fun, GambleAware can help.
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