Audemars Piguet · WatchesPacks checked 10 Nov 2026
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
The packs that hold it, cheapest first, with the chance each site shows. We found it in at least 33 packs on 4 sites.
- 4 sites we review
- 33 packs found
- best chance 1 in 50
- odds as each site shows them
New to packs? How they work in three steps
How packs work, with this item's numbers
- A pack is a mystery boxEach pack on a site lists its items and the chance of each one.
- The price buys one openingOne opening costs $5.92 for a 1 in 1,000,000 chance at this one (Thanksgiving on LuxDrop). The site draws one item at random.
- 1 in 1,000,000 is your chanceOn average, one opening in 1,000,000 gives the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak. The others give something else from the pack.
On average a pack pays back less than it costs. The house always wins.
Cheapest way in
One opening$5.92
Chance at the item1 in 1,000,000
Review Promo codes Affiliate link: search for "Thanksgiving" on LuxDrop.
What does this price buy?
$5.92 buys one opening of Thanksgiving with a 1 in 1,000,000 chance at the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, not the item itself.
On average, one opening in 1,000,000 gives it. The others give something else from the pack.
The button is our affiliate link: it opens LuxDrop with our code, not the pack, so search for "Thanksgiving" there.
How likely am I to get it?
Each site's best chance for this item, on one scale. The longer the bar, the likelier.
- LuxDrop 1 in 50AP, $2,791.03 pack
- RillaBox 1 in 2,110Porsche, $919.99 pack
- PackDraw 1 in 125Audemars Piguet, $2,404.03 pack
- Cases.gg 1 in 400Time is Money, $953.85 pack
The best chance is 1 in 50 for $2,791.03 a pack, in AP on LuxDrop.
What the sites value it at
$12,700 to $412,500
Why do the values differ?
Each site puts its own value on the item, and one name can cover several models or editions. It is what the site says the item is worth, not what you pay: you pay the pack's price.
Every pack we found it in
Cheapest first · 33 of 33 shown
How do I read this list?
- One opening
- The pack's price on the site. It buys one opening, and one item comes out.
- Chance
- How often this item comes out of that pack, as the site shows it. "1 in 20,000" means one opening in 20,000, on average. The bar runs from 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10.
- Site's value
- What the site says the item is worth, next to the item's name on the site.
- Find
- Our affiliate link. It opens the site with our code, not the pack, so search for the pack by its name.
We list up to the eight cheapest packs per site and the one with the best chance for its price.
| Pack | One opening | Chance | Find it |
|---|---|---|---|
| ThanksgivingCheapest LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Day-Date Moonphase · site's value $34,000 | $5.92 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Adin Ross RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Silver Dial - 37mm, Steel (2014) · site's value $30,000 | $12.79 a pack | 1 in 125,0000.0008% | Find |
| 1% Millionaire PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel Green Dial 50th Anniversary 41mm · site's value $61,500 | $47.78 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Top G RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak - 41mm, Steel (2017) · site's value $50,000 | $49.99 a pack | 1 in 90,9090.0011% | Find |
| Super Bowl LX PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph 41mm · site's value $68,000 | $61.47 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Amiri PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel Dual Time White Dial 39mm · site's value $42,000 | $88.10 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| 1% Tycoon PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel White Dial 41mm · site's value $45,000 | $98.12 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| Senorita LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Lady · site's value $15,200 | $172.11 a pack | 1 in 16,6670.006% | Find |
| Juice Back PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel White Dial 41mm · site's value $45,000 | $174.23 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Horologist Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST · site's value $53,350 | $193.58 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Benny PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel Chronograph Panda Dial 41mm · site's value $55,200 | $195.25 a pack | 1 in 40,0000.0025% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph · site's value $42,150 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Tourbillon · site's value $231,000 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| White Gold Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph 26239BC · site's value $121,000 | $276.13 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Swatch x AP PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Malachite Yellow Gold 37mm · site's value $210,000 | $290.20 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Swatch x AP PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Malachite Yellow Gold 41mm · site's value $215,000 | $290.20 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Rose Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Selfwinding 15400OR · site's value $88,000 | $295.25 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Baller Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph White Dial 39mm · site's value $35,000 | $343.75 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Manifestation RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Silver Dial - 36mm, Steel (2005) · site's value $21,800 | $359.99 a pack | 1 in 4,1320.024% | Find |
| Photogenic LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Selfwinding Blue Dial · site's value $86,135 | $563.20 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| JohnCS LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar Openworked Black Ceramic 41mm · site's value $412,500 | $597.93 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Dubai Bling RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Silver/Black Dial - 41mm, Steel (2023) · site's value $47,500 | $609.99 a pack | 1 in 3,0770.033% | Find |
| Timepiece LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 33mm Stainless Steel Alinghi White Dial on Leather · site's value $12,700 | $616.24 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| Timepiece LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Square Jumbo Two Tone Quartz Grey Dial · site's value $14,000 | $616.24 a pack | 1 in 1,3330.075% | Find |
| Executive LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Automatic 41mm · site's value $41,250 | $738.61 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Porsche RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Silver Dial - 41mm, Steel (2023) · site's value $35,900 | $919.99 a pack | 1 in 2,1100.047% | Find |
| Time is Money Cases.gg · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph · site's value $42,150 | $953.85 a pack | 1 in 4000.25% | Find |
| 2% Two Tone LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 34mm Selfwinding Grey Dial · site's value $55,000 | $967.11 a pack | 1 in 1,5380.065% | Find |
| Ballers Bliss RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue Dial - 41mm, Rose Gold (2022) · site's value $82,500 | $1,049.99 a pack | 1 in 2,6040.038% | Find |
| Ballers Bliss RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue Dial - 41mm, Rose Gold (2020) · site's value $94,500 | $1,049.99 a pack | 1 in 3,0670.033% | Find |
| Ballers Bliss RillaBox · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Skeleton Dial - 39mm, Steel (2015) · site's value $114,500 | $1,049.99 a pack | 1 in 3,9370.025% | Find |
| Audemars Piguet PackDraw · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Stainless Steel Dual Time White Dial 39mm · site's value $42,000 | $2,404.03 a pack | 1 in 1250.8% | Find |
| APBest chance LuxDrop · Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Vintage Rectangular · site's value $16,350 | $2,791.03 a pack | 1 in 502% | Find |
What we think
The Royal Oak is the octagonal steel watch that started the luxury sports watch. In the cheapest pack the chance is 1 in 1,000,000, so expect the small items, not the watch.
Want the sites rather than one item? Our Luxury Mystery Boxes list ranks them. Before you open a pack, read our LuxDrop review, RillaBox review, PackDraw review and Cases.gg review.
Other watches we track
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore
From a $110.62 pack · 1 in 10,000
Best chance 1 in 33
At least 25 packs on 4 sites: PackDraw, Cases.gg, RillaBox, LuxDrop
Cartier
Cartier Santos
From a $2.58 pack · 1 in 500,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 32 packs on 5 sites: GOATbox.gg, LuxDrop, PackDraw, RillaBox, Cases.gg
Swatch
Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch
From a $0.82 pack · 1 in 100,000
Best chance 1 in 8
At least 29 packs on 5 sites: PackDraw, LuxDrop, Cases.gg, GOATbox.gg, RillaBox
Omega
Omega Speedmaster
From an $11.03 pack · 1 in 50,000
Best chance 1 in 100
At least 18 packs on 3 sites: LuxDrop, RillaBox, Cases.gg
Packs checked 10 Nov 2026. The chance, the pack price and the value are each site's own, read from its pack pages. "1 in N" is 100 divided by the chance. The buttons are our affiliate links: they open the site with our code, not the pack itself. We may earn a commission; it never changes the odds or the order here, which is always cheapest first. Opening packs is entertainment, not a cheap way to get this item: the house always wins. If it stops being fun, GambleAware can help.
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