Rolex · WatchesPacks checked 10 Nov 2026
Rolex Cosmograph Daytona
The packs that hold it, cheapest first, with the chance each site shows. We found it in at least 34 packs on 4 sites.
- 4 sites we review
- 34 packs found
- best chance 1 in 200
- odds as each site shows them
New to packs? How they work in three steps
How packs work, with this item's numbers
- A pack is a mystery boxEach pack on a site lists its items and the chance of each one.
- The price buys one openingOne opening costs $6.46 for a 1 in 1,000,000 chance at this one (Fall Drip on LuxDrop). The site draws one item at random.
- 1 in 1,000,000 is your chanceOn average, one opening in 1,000,000 gives the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona. The others give something else from the pack.
On average a pack pays back less than it costs. The house always wins.
Cheapest way in
One opening$6.46
Chance at the item1 in 1,000,000
Review Promo codes Affiliate link: search for "Fall Drip" on LuxDrop.
What does this price buy?
$6.46 buys one opening of Fall Drip with a 1 in 1,000,000 chance at the Rolex Cosmograph Daytona, not the item itself.
On average, one opening in 1,000,000 gives it. The others give something else from the pack.
The button is our affiliate link: it opens LuxDrop with our code, not the pack, so search for "Fall Drip" there.
How likely am I to get it?
Each site's best chance for this item, on one scale. The longer the bar, the likelier.
- LuxDrop 1 in 1,000JohnCS, $597.93 pack
- PackDraw 1 in 2,000Benny, $195.25 pack
- Cases.gg 1 in 200Rolex, $3,753.70 pack
- RillaBox 1 in 826Rolex Daytona, $1,124.99 pack
The best chance is 1 in 200 for $3,753.70 a pack, in Rolex on Cases.gg.
What the sites value it at
$20,600 to $252,500
Why do the values differ?
Each site puts its own value on the item, and one name can cover several models or editions. It is what the site says the item is worth, not what you pay: you pay the pack's price.
Every pack we found it in
Cheapest first · 34 of 34 shown
How do I read this list?
- One opening
- The pack's price on the site. It buys one opening, and one item comes out.
- Chance
- How often this item comes out of that pack, as the site shows it. "1 in 20,000" means one opening in 20,000, on average. The bar runs from 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10.
- Site's value
- What the site says the item is worth, next to the item's name on the site.
- Find
- Our affiliate link. It opens the site with our code, not the pack, so search for the pack by its name.
We list up to the eight cheapest packs per site and the one with the best chance for its price.
| Pack | One opening | Chance | Find it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall DripCheapest LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm 18kt Yellow Gold White Dial · site's value $60,500 | $6.46 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Golden Ticket PackDraw · Rolex Daytona Yellow Gold White Dial 40mm · site's value $65,129 | $23.64 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Golden Riches PackDraw · Rolex Daytona Yellow Gold White Dial 40mm · site's value $65,129 | $46.64 a pack | 1 in 25,0000.004% | Find |
| Sorry Bro PackDraw · Rolex Daytona Two Tone Black Dial 40mm · site's value $33,500 | $54.33 a pack | 1 in 71,4290.0014% | Find |
| It's Due PackDraw · Rolex Daytona "Panda" 40mm · site's value $41,000 | $59.25 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| Best of 2024 PackDraw · Rolex Daytona Two Tone Black Dial 40mm · site's value $33,500 | $74.32 a pack | 1 in 1,000,0000.0001% | Find |
| SteveWillDoIt Junior PackDraw · Rolex Daytona White Gold Black and White Mother of Pearl 40mm · site's value $95,000 | $79.06 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| SteveWillDoIt Junior PackDraw · Rolex Daytona White Gold and Diamonds 40mm · site's value $90,000 | $79.06 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| SteveWillDoIt Junior PackDraw · Rolex Daytona White Gold and Diamonds Mother of Pearl 40mm · site's value $85,000 | $79.06 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| Chairman LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm Rainbow Bezel Diamond Iced · site's value $71,674 | $157.97 a pack | 1 in 166,6670.0006% | Find |
| 1% Luxury LuxDrop · Rolex Daytona 40mm "Reverse Panda" · site's value $33,075 | $187.09 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Bezeljuice LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm Rainbow Bezel Diamond Iced · site's value $71,674 | $190.66 a pack | 1 in 4,0000.025% | Find |
| Horologist Cases.gg · Rolex Daytona Stainless Steel White Dial · site's value $40,000 | $193.58 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Benny PackDraw · Rolex Daytona "Panda" 40mm · site's value $41,000 | $195.25 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Sweetflips LuxDrop · Rolex Daytona 40mm 18kt White Gold "Le Mans" · site's value $252,500 | $245.88 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Rolex Daytona Rose Gold Chocolate Arabic Dial · site's value $38,000 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 50,0000.002% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona · site's value $137,500 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| 10% Rolex LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm 18kt Yellow Gold Black Dial · site's value $57,750 | $291.27 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| Watch Out LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm 18kt Yellow Gold Black Dial · site's value $57,750 | $315.87 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| The Watcher LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm Rainbow Bezel Diamond Iced · site's value $71,674 | $332.21 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Lavish Luxury RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Dial - 40mm, Steel (2020) · site's value $28,000 | $339.99 a pack | 1 in 8,1970.012% | Find |
| Lavish Luxury RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Dial - 40mm, Yellow Gold (2022) · site's value $47,105 | $339.99 a pack | 1 in 41,6670.0024% | Find |
| Manifestation RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Steel and Black Dial - 40mm, White Gold (2021) · site's value $42,600 | $359.99 a pack | 1 in 8,4030.012% | Find |
| Chrono Collection RillaBox · Rolex Daytona White Dial - 40mm, Steel and Yellow Gold (2021) · site's value $23,450 | $449.99 a pack | 1 in 5,6820.018% | Find |
| Chrono Collection RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Dial - 40mm, Yellow Gold (2022) · site's value $47,105 | $449.99 a pack | 1 in 66,6670.0015% | Find |
| JohnCS LuxDrop · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 40mm 18kt Everose Gold Bright Chocolate Dial · site's value $68,200 | $597.93 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| Tesla RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Dial - 40mm, Steel (2020) · site's value $28,000 | $699.99 a pack | 1 in 2,5320.04% | Find |
| Mercedes RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Diamond Dial - 40mm, Steel & Yellow Gold (2016) · site's value $21,000 | $789.99 a pack | 1 in 2,6180.038% | Find |
| Mercedes RillaBox · Rolex Daytona White Dial (Panda) - 40mm, Steel (2019) · site's value $29,000 | $789.99 a pack | 1 in 3,6500.027% | Find |
| Time is Money Cases.gg · Rolex Daytona Rose Gold Chocolate Arabic Dial · site's value $38,000 | $953.85 a pack | 1 in 3850.26% | Find |
| Rolex Daytona RillaBox · Rolex Daytona Black Dial - 40mm, Steel and Yellow Gold (2018) · site's value $20,600 | $1,124.99 a pack | 1 in 8260.12% | Find |
| RolexBest chance Cases.gg · Rolex Daytona Stainless Steel White Dial · site's value $40,000 | $3,753.70 a pack | 1 in 2000.5% | Find |
| The Crown Cases.gg · Rolex Daytona 116598 Saco Leopard · site's value $96,800 | $7,562.56 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| The Crown Cases.gg · Rolex Cosmograph Daytona · site's value $137,500 | $7,562.56 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
What we think
The Daytona is the Rolex chronograph people wait years for at a dealer, and the packs carry everything from steel to the rainbow-bezel versions. In the cheapest pack the chance is 1 in 1,000,000, so expect the small items, not the watch.
Want the sites rather than one item? Our Rolex Mystery Boxes list ranks them. Before you open a pack, read our LuxDrop review, PackDraw review, Cases.gg review and RillaBox review.
Other watches we track
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore
From a $110.62 pack · 1 in 10,000
Best chance 1 in 33
At least 25 packs on 4 sites: PackDraw, Cases.gg, RillaBox, LuxDrop
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
From a $5.92 pack · 1 in 1,000,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 33 packs on 4 sites: LuxDrop, RillaBox, PackDraw, Cases.gg
Cartier
Cartier Santos
From a $2.58 pack · 1 in 500,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 32 packs on 5 sites: GOATbox.gg, LuxDrop, PackDraw, RillaBox, Cases.gg
Swatch
Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch
From a $0.82 pack · 1 in 100,000
Best chance 1 in 8
At least 29 packs on 5 sites: PackDraw, LuxDrop, Cases.gg, GOATbox.gg, RillaBox
Packs checked 10 Nov 2026. The chance, the pack price and the value are each site's own, read from its pack pages. "1 in N" is 100 divided by the chance. The buttons are our affiliate links: they open the site with our code, not the pack itself. We may earn a commission; it never changes the odds or the order here, which is always cheapest first. Opening packs is entertainment, not a cheap way to get this item: the house always wins. If it stops being fun, GambleAware can help.
Join other top mystery box sites and work with us.