Patek Philippe · WatchesPacks checked 10 Nov 2026
Patek Philippe Nautilus
The packs that hold it, cheapest first, with the chance each site shows. We found it in at least 32 packs on 4 sites.
- 4 sites we review
- 32 packs found
- best chance 1 in 63
- odds as each site shows them
New to packs? How they work in three steps
How packs work, with this item's numbers
- A pack is a mystery boxEach pack on a site lists its items and the chance of each one.
- The price buys one openingOne opening costs $272.11 for a 1 in 100,000 chance at this one (Ten Past Ten on Cases.gg). The site draws one item at random.
- 1 in 100,000 is your chanceOn average, one opening in 100,000 gives the Patek Philippe Nautilus. The others give something else from the pack.
On average a pack pays back less than it costs. The house always wins.
Cheapest way in
One opening$272.11
Chance at the item1 in 100,000
Review Promo codes Affiliate link: search for "Ten Past Ten" on Cases.gg.
What does this price buy?
$272.11 buys one opening of Ten Past Ten with a 1 in 100,000 chance at the Patek Philippe Nautilus, not the item itself.
On average, one opening in 100,000 gives it. The others give something else from the pack.
The button is our affiliate link: it opens Cases.gg with our code, not the pack, so search for "Ten Past Ten" there.
How likely am I to get it?
Each site's best chance for this item, on one scale. The longer the bar, the likelier.
- Cases.gg 1 in 909Prestige Timekeeper, $1,700.56 pack
- PackDraw 1 in 63Atlantis, $20,052.85 pack
- LuxDrop 1 in 200Patek Philippe, $12,131.50 pack
- RillaBox 1 in 1,484Bentley, $1,889.99 pack
The best chance is 1 in 63 for $20,052.85 a pack, in Atlantis on PackDraw.
What the sites value it at
$67,650 to $470,000
Why do the values differ?
Each site puts its own value on the item, and one name can cover several models or editions. It is what the site says the item is worth, not what you pay: you pay the pack's price.
Every pack we found it in
Cheapest first · 32 of 32 shown
How do I read this list?
- One opening
- The pack's price on the site. It buys one opening, and one item comes out.
- Chance
- How often this item comes out of that pack, as the site shows it. "1 in 20,000" means one opening in 20,000, on average. The bar runs from 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10.
- Site's value
- What the site says the item is worth, next to the item's name on the site.
- Find
- Our affiliate link. It opens the site with our code, not the pack, so search for the pack by its name.
We list up to the eight cheapest packs per site and the one with the best chance for its price.
| Pack | One opening | Chance | Find it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ten Past TenCheapest Cases.gg · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R Moon Phases Rose Gold · site's value $225,500 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| Ten Past Ten Cases.gg · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial Stainless Steel 37.5mm · site's value $67,650 | $272.11 a pack | 1 in 100,0000.001% | Find |
| White Gold Cases.gg · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5811/1G · site's value $165,000 | $276.13 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Rose Cases.gg · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R Moon Phases Rose Gold · site's value $225,500 | $295.25 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Time Piece Trading PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R 40mm · site's value $302,500 | $302.80 a pack | 1 in 40,0000.0025% | Find |
| Togider PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus Green 40mm · site's value $290,000 | $315.38 a pack | 1 in 20,0000.005% | Find |
| Champagne PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 'Ladies' Goden Opaline Rose Gold 35mm · site's value $225,000 | $451.47 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Champagne PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 'Ladies' Rose Gold Champagne Golden Dial 35mm · site's value $140,000 | $451.47 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Champagne PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus Stainless Steel Yellow Gold Champagne Dial 37mm · site's value $70,000 | $451.47 a pack | 1 in 10,0000.01% | Find |
| Nitro Rush PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5740/1G 40mm · site's value $290,400 | $487.39 a pack | 1 in 250,0000.0004% | Find |
| Nitro Rush PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5980/1R 40.5mm · site's value $246,000 | $487.39 a pack | 1 in 250,0000.0004% | Find |
| Nitro Rush PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus 5990/1R 40.5mm · site's value $344,400 | $487.39 a pack | 1 in 333,3330.0003% | Find |
| JohnCS LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial 40mm · site's value $148,500 | $597.93 a pack | 1 in 3,3330.03% | Find |
| 2% Two Tone LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Two-Tone · site's value $159,000 | $967.11 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Monaco Case Cases.gg · Patek Philippe 5711/1A-011 Nautilus Stainless Steel · site's value $138,000 | $1,374.58 a pack | 1 in 1,0000.1% | Find |
| Monaco Case Cases.gg · Patek Philippe 5811/1G Nautilus · site's value $214,800 | $1,374.58 a pack | 1 in 2,0000.05% | Find |
| Timepiece Treasure RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus Silver Dial - 35mm, 18ct Rose Gold · site's value $70,000 | $1,499.99 a pack | 1 in 1,6720.06% | Find |
| Timepiece Treasure RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus Rose Gold Pink Dial - 35mm, 18ct Rose Gold · site's value $88,900 | $1,499.99 a pack | 1 in 2,1790.046% | Find |
| Timepiece Treasure RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus - 40mm, Steel (2018) · site's value $103,125 | $1,499.99 a pack | 1 in 2,5190.04% | Find |
| Timepiece Treasure RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus Golden Dial - 35mm, 18ct Rose Gold (2024) · site's value $224,750 | $1,499.99 a pack | 1 in 4,5250.022% | Find |
| Timepiece Treasure RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus Sapphire Crystal - 40mm, Platinum (2024) · site's value $470,000 | $1,499.99 a pack | 1 in 111,1110.0009% | Find |
| Cars Vs Watches RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial - 41mm, White Gold (2024) · site's value $174,780 | $1,599.99 a pack | 1 in 3,9840.025% | Find |
| Prestige Timekeeper Cases.gg · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial Stainless Steel 37.5mm · site's value $67,650 | $1,700.56 a pack | 1 in 9090.11% | Find |
| Bentley RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus - 40mm, Steel (2018) · site's value $103,125 | $1,889.99 a pack | 1 in 1,4840.067% | Find |
| Patek Philippe RillaBox · Patek Philippe Nautilus White Dial - 40.5mm, Steel · site's value $196,820 | $2,349.99 a pack | 1 in 6,0610.017% | Find |
| Sovereign LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus 'Ladies' Rose Gold · site's value $175,000 | $6,979.17 a pack | 1 in 1,3330.075% | Find |
| Conquest LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus "Black Canvas" · site's value $250,000 | $8,155.52 a pack | 1 in 1,1760.085% | Find |
| Conquest LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus Travel Time Chronograph 40.5mm · site's value $148,000 | $8,155.52 a pack | 1 in 1,4290.07% | Find |
| Patek Philippe LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus 'Ladies' Rose Gold · site's value $175,000 | $12,131.50 a pack | 1 in 2000.5% | Find |
| Patek Philippe LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus Lady · site's value $140,000 | $12,131.50 a pack | 1 in 2000.5% | Find |
| Patek Philippe LuxDrop · Patek Philippe Nautilus Travel Time Chronograph 40.5mm · site's value $148,000 | $12,131.50 a pack | 1 in 2000.5% | Find |
| AtlantisBest chance PackDraw · Patek Philippe Nautilus Blue Dial 40mm · site's value $170,000 | $20,052.85 a pack | 1 in 631.6% | Find |
What we think
The Nautilus is the steel sports watch that made Patek Philippe waitlists famous. In the cheapest pack the chance is 1 in 100,000, so expect the small items, not the watch.
Want the sites rather than one item? Our Luxury Mystery Boxes list ranks them. Before you open a pack, read our Cases.gg review, PackDraw review, LuxDrop review and RillaBox review.
Other watches we track
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore
From a $110.62 pack · 1 in 10,000
Best chance 1 in 33
At least 25 packs on 4 sites: PackDraw, Cases.gg, RillaBox, LuxDrop
Audemars Piguet
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak
From a $5.92 pack · 1 in 1,000,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 33 packs on 4 sites: LuxDrop, RillaBox, PackDraw, Cases.gg
Cartier
Cartier Santos
From a $2.58 pack · 1 in 500,000
Best chance 1 in 50
At least 32 packs on 5 sites: GOATbox.gg, LuxDrop, PackDraw, RillaBox, Cases.gg
Swatch
Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch
From a $0.82 pack · 1 in 100,000
Best chance 1 in 8
At least 29 packs on 5 sites: PackDraw, LuxDrop, Cases.gg, GOATbox.gg, RillaBox
Packs checked 10 Nov 2026. The chance, the pack price and the value are each site's own, read from its pack pages. "1 in N" is 100 divided by the chance. The buttons are our affiliate links: they open the site with our code, not the pack itself. We may earn a commission; it never changes the odds or the order here, which is always cheapest first. Opening packs is entertainment, not a cheap way to get this item: the house always wins. If it stops being fun, GambleAware can help.
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